Barwon South West's Outlook
Barwon South West extends from Geelong in the east along the south coast to Warrnambool, Portland and the border with South Australia in the west. While the region’s traditional agriculture base faces challenges, Barwon South West has a strong outlook due to Geelong’s growing role as Victoria’s ‘second city’, access to a deep water port at Portland, an established rail network with interstate connections and several commercial airports.
Strong growth in Geelong and coastal towns
The population of Barwon South West is projected to grow by around 90,000 between 2006 and 2026 (from 355,000 to 445,000) and at a higher rate than the regional Victoria average. The strongest growth is likely to occur in Geelong, Warrnambool and Torquay, with steady growth also expected in Ocean Grove, Colac, Camperdown, Portland and Hamilton. Most of these locations have hinterland settlements that rely on the larger centres for some business and community services. However, the smaller settlements themselves, such as Terang and Winchelsea, are also focal points for retailing, services and recreation for surrounding areas.
Portland, Warrnambool, Port Fairy and Torquay are likely to continue to grow strongly as favoured residential and service locations, although further west an ageing population is projected top reduce growth rates.
As in other regions, much of this growth will come from migration, with around 61,000 people expected to make the move to the region over the next 20 years – two-thirds of projected population growth.
The region’s population aged 75 years and over is projected to rise from 7.9 per cent in 2006 to 15.4 per cent in 2036. This population ageing will be offset by Geelong’s ability to offer employment, education and lifestyle options that will help in attracting and retaining young people.
Diverse region of economic opportunities
Agriculture and tourism are major industries across the region, as are transport and education. The Ports of Geelong and Portland are key transport and freight assets for the region.
Geelong has a longstanding manufacturing and engineering base, with particular strengths in automotive and textiles, and promising futures in industries like aviation. While manufacturing remains critical to the region’s economy, its industrial base has become more diversified over time, with growing capabilities in various services sectors and biotechnology – supported by the city’s extensive tertiary education and research facilities and proximity to Melbourne. This proximity also has disadvantages, with Geelong being relatively under-represented in rental, real estate services and financial and insurance services because people in these sectors are more likely to work in Melbourne. However, Geelong‘s diversity reduces the region’s reliance on and exposure to its traditional base of car-making and car component manufacturing.
Barwon South West is expected to benefit from the development of alternative energy sources (such as gas, wind, geothermal and wave energy power plants), which may also help to maintain the region’s presence in aluminium production. Gas-fired power plants are under construction in the south west at locations near Mortlake and Orford. There is ongoing growth in the construction of wind farms in the region, with construction of the wind turbines and transportation of the wind turbines occurring primarily around Portland.
New opportunities are also emerging in plantation timber and mineral sands and – in the region’s east – in services, tourism and biotechnology.
Major government investment and service improvements
Rail and road connections across Barwon South West have been significantly upgraded in recent years, with a focus on links that will help the eastern part of region to capture the benefits of proximity to Melbourne (including the construction of the Geelong Ring Road).
The Victorian Transport Plan commits $80 million to improve bus services in the Greater Geelong area. Stage 1 of service improvements were introduced in September 2009 with Stage 2 improvements to be introduced later in 2010.
Work has commenced on the Regional Rail Link, a $4.3 billion project to construct up to 50 kilometres of new V/Line track between Werribee and Southern Cross Station. This new link will increase the reliability and frequency of services to Geelong. Other key transport projects include:
- Princes Highway West– National network now extended to Colac
- Princes Highway West– duplication to Winchelsea
- Green Triangle Freight Action Plan
- Colac Lavers Hill upgrade
- Inter Modal terminal at Warrnambool.
With growth expected to occur in the ‘green triangle’ region of Barwon South West (primarily in the export of timber and woodchips, and the export and processing of mineral sands), an increase in freight traffic to and from the Ports of Geelong and in particular the Port of Portland is anticipated.
RDV's Infrastructure Development Fund has undertaken a number of water efficiency projects in the region and is also supporting upgrades of Portland and Warrnambool airports.
Education Regeneration Projects are occurring in Geelong and Colac. These projects will deliver a better model of education to communities and also provide the opportunity to develop partnerships with community organisations, businesses and other levels of government to improve educational and life outcomes for children and young people.
The Government has committed $30 million to expand Geelong Hospital, creating up to 42 jobs in construction and a further $26 million has been allocated for the Warrnambool Hospital redevelopment.
Coastal and bushfire conditions
Climate change poses significant challenges for the region. Coastal towns, buildings and infrastructure are at risk from of higher sea levels, erosion, flooding and storm surges. Inland, there will be an increased risk of bushfires. Water resources are likely to be constrained, with wetlands and shallow lakes at risk of drying up.
The region contains all or part of four flagship assets identified by the Securing our natural future White Paper requiring special management and protection: South West (from Discovery Bay across Glenelg Plain to Dergholm State Park, north of Edenhope and south to the Discovery Bay Marine National Park), Greater Grampians, Otway’s (the Otway Ranges from Anglesea to Glenaire) and Western Volcanic Plains (north east of Warrnambool).
Water security, supply and connections
The south-eastern part of the region, including Geelong, is covered by the Central Region Water Strategy. This strategy contains a range of local recycling projects, including the use of recycled water for industry in Geelong.
By securing Ballarat’s water future, Barwon Water has been able to retain its share of Lal Lal Reservoir for urban use in Geelong. The Government will also grant Barwon Water a bulk entitlement for the deep Jan Juc aquifer that will provide up to 7,000 ML of water, subject to feasibility and a business case. Barwon Water will also investigate longer term options to augment the region’s water supply. Geelong will be connected with Melbourne’s water supply in the next few years.
The Central Region Water Strategy also provides for extra water to be allocated to the region’s major river systems.
The draft Western Region Water Strategy was released in March 2010. The Great South Coast sub-region will be subject to this strategy. The water resource outlook for the sub-region is influenced by the expectation that climate change will cause the region to be drier and warmer than the past century, and that water inflows will remain low. In these circumstances, groundwater resources (which make up half the water used in the region) will need to be managed particularly carefully.
In Hamilton, water demand already exceeds the supply of water from streams in the Southern Grampians catchment. Supply in this are will be augmented by the 52-kilometre Hamilton-Grampians Pipeline, which will connect the Hamilton system to Rocklands Reservoir and deliver up to two billion litres of water each year.
Visit here to read more about the G21 Geelong Region Plan
Visit here to read more about the Great South Coast Regional Strategic Plan