Gippsland's Outlook
Growing centres and towns
Gippsland’s population is projected to expand from 248,500 to 306,600 between 2006 and 2026 at a growth rate similar to that for regional Victoria over the same period. As in the rest of regional Victoria, growth in Gippsland is expected to be concentrated in regional centres, smaller towns in the south and east that are within one or two hours of Melbourne’s CBD, and amenity or ‘lifestyle’ locations, particularly the rapidly growing settlements along the Bass Coast.
The population of Warragul-Drouin is projected to increase to 43,000 by 2026 (up from 30,300 in 2006), a relatively high rate due to the proximity of these towns to Melbourne. The Latrobe cluster of towns – Morwell, Moe and Traralgon – is expected to continue to attract population from Melbourne and West Gippsland. Bairnsdale and its hinterland, including the towns of Paynesville, Metung and Lakes Entrance, is projected have over 12,000 more people by 2026, an average growth rate of 1.38 per cent per year. Smaller towns in coastal locations will continue to grow, while others that are distant from the main centres are expected to decline. Orbost is projected to grow steadily. Growth in and around Sale is also projected to improve gradually, with hinterland towns including Maffra, Yarram, Rosedale and Port Albert growing at a slightly slower rate.
In east Gippsland, Orbost provides important sub-regional services to a relatively dispersed population in Cann River and elsewhere. Mallacoota attracts high numbers of annual visitors and is growing as a ‘sea change’ locality.
The towns in south Gippsland, including Leongatha, Korrumburra and Wonthaggi, are all stable, commercial centres for rich surrounding agricultural districts. Inverloch and Cowes-San Remo attract large summertime populations, with the former also being an important residential location amid a large number of smaller associated locations.
Warragul and Drouin are both growing because of their proximity and access to the eastern metropolitan employment nodes. They also provide sub-regional services to smaller settlements such as Yarragon and Noojee.
Because of the relatively concentrated nature of settlement in Gippsland, towns and centres are readily accessible, so communities remain closely integrated and connected. Small communities are expected to continue to thrive, providing local and sub-regional services to their residents and businesses.
The proportion of Gippsland’s population aged 75 over is projected to increase from 7.5 per cent in 2006 to 15.6 per cent in 2036. This factor, coupled with the departure of young people from the region, is expected to continue to influence relatively slow population growth across the region as a whole.
Outlook and opportunities
While a relatively broad industry profile provides some protection to employment in the region, Gippsland faces challenges arising from an ageing population and in key industries (farming, forestry and mining) that are at risk from climate change and associated policies.
The Latrobe Valley, with its heavy reliance on the energy sector, faces significant challenges over the short term from the global shift to a low carbon economy. To secure the area’s future, the Government is providing high levels of investment to explore the potential of clean coal and renewable energy technologies and undertaking planning, mapping and consultation to ensure that Gippsland becomes a centre for these technologies.
Strong prospects for the region are likely to lie in the tourism potential of coastal and bushland locations, including national parks, although this is a relatively small component of the regional economy at present. Far East Gippsland, Mallacoota and surrounding areas, the Gippsland Lakes, Tarra Valley, Phillip Island, Mt Baw Baw and Wilson’s Promontory are among the region’s major nature-based tourism assets. The region is also likely to see a moderately strong level of investment by governments in response to emerging climate change issues.
New opportunities are also emerging in intensive and organic food production, while major new investment in recent years is enhancing Victoria’s potential as a leader in dairy innovation – underpinning a successful, competitive and sustainable dairy industry in the region.
Major government investment and service improvements
Rail and road connections across the region have been significantly upgraded in recent years including improvements to the regional arterial road network, and upgrade of the South Gippsland Highway between Sale and Longford. Major road projects to be progressed or completed include further work on the Bass and South Gippsland Highways, and the Pound Road – South Gippsland Freeway – South Gippsland Highway interchange upgrade.
In addition, the Victorian Transport Plan brings forward Commonwealth funding to allow early commencement on major Victorian road projects, including the Princes Highway East Duplication – Traralgon to Sale.
Education Regeneration Projects are occurring in Bairnsdale, Leongatha and Morwell. These projects will deliver an improved model of education to communities and also provide the opportunity to develop partnerships with community organisations, business and other levels of government to improve educational and life outcomes for children and young people.
Climate change in coastal areas
A changing climate poses challenges for the region’s natural assets, resources and biodiversity. Buildings and infrastructure may also be at risk from flooding and storm surges along the coast, and from bushfires inland. The new Coastal Settlements of the Future program will focus initially on Lakes Entrance and Port Welshpool, helping these communities to mitigate risk, protect vital infrastructure and adapt to climate change.
The Gippsland Lakes, Far East Gippsland (including the Snowy River catchment and the Coopracambra and Croajingolong National Parks) and Wilson’s Promontory are identified as flagship areas in the Securing our Natural Future White Paper and will attract special management and protection. New biolinks between the Victorian Alps and the Gippsland Lakes, and between the Lakes and Wilsons Promontory will protect native species, vegetation and high value ecosystems in the region.
Water security, supply and connections
The Gippsland Water Factory Project will operate as a major source of recycled water for industry and urban uses. The system will treat up to 35 million litres of domestic and industrial wastewater daily, and provide around 8 million litres of high quality recycled water each day for use by local industry. The Wonthaggi Desalination plant will provide water to towns in Western Port and South Gippsland.
However, many water supply systems in Gippsland have no connection to systems outside their areas, exposing these locations to supply risks. This will require further exploration of water savings opportunities, including improvements to the Macalister Irrigation District and better demand management for urban water, as well as reuse, recycling and urban storm water as ‘alternative sources’ available across the region.
The Gippsland Region Sustainable Water Strategy Discussion Paper was released in 2009 and refers to ‘developing a robust water market’ in Gippsland to enable water to be moved to highest-value uses. This issue, and the question of balancing water use with the need to maintain a healthy environment, will influence many of the future decisions on water security and supply in the region. The draft Gippsland Region Sustainable Water Strategy is expected to be released in 2010 and will explore a range of options to manage water supply and ensure security within the region.
Following is the Gippsland Regional plan as presented to the Victorian Government for endorsement: