Grampians Outlook

The Grampians region spans a corridor from the west of Melbourne, across the Wimmera area and to the state’s western border with South Australia. The eastern and western parts of the region are experiencing very different circumstances. In the east, Ballarat is a strong driver of growth and new investment and business opportunities, with the increasing prosperity of towns and communities around Ballarat and between Ballarat and Melbourne attracting new residents. In the west, the focus is in diversifying the area’s economic base to counteract the effects of the restructuring occurring in the agriculture sector.

Cities and centres and dispersed populations

Population growth in the Grampians region is expected to be concentrated in the eastern part of the region – in and around Ballarat, which has been experiencing growth at or above the state average for the past decade, and is likely to reach a population of over 100,000 within the next 10 to 12 years.

The ABS Statistical District of Central Highlands is projected to grow from 147,500 to 190,500 between 2006 and 2026 at an average annual growth rate of 1.2 per cent. With its proximity to Melbourne, Central Highlands attracts high numbers of people moving out of the city to areas such as Bacchus Marsh and Darley. Emigration from Melbourne is projected to increase from the current level of 1,000 people each year to 1,800 over the next 30 years.

The population of Ballarat will grow by around 30,000 by 2026, an average annual rate of 1.48 per cent, amongst the highest in regional Victoria. The population of Bacchus Marsh is expected to rise to 23,300 by 2026, an increase of more than 7,000 people. Towns around these two centres will also absorb growth, including Bannockburn which will gain most of the 2,000 extra people expected to settle in Golden Plains.

Maryborough is expected to grow modestly to 2026, while continuing to provide important retail and business services to its hinterland towns and broad-hectare farming areas. The improved rail link with Ballarat is expected to contribute to lifestyle, as well as connectivity for sub-regional residents and businesses.

In the Wimmera ABS Statistical District, population is expected to decrease slightly between 2006 and 2026, by around 4,000 people. By 2014, the number of deaths in the Wimmera will surpass the number of births, a situation already being experienced in most parts of the region other than Horsham. The Wimmera’s population is expected to age significantly, with the number of 0-17 year olds projected to decrease, while people aged 75 and over is projected to increase by 4,070. The proportion of the Wimmera’s population aged 75 years and over is expected to rise from 9.6 per cent in 2006 to 18.0 per cent in 2026. This ageing population will have impacts on work force participation and the scale and liveability of settlements, particularly those that are some distance from Horsham, including Nhill, Dimboola, Murtoa and Warracknabeal. However, each of these towns will retain residents who use local services and visit Horsham for specialist needs that include business and retail services and, in some cases, education.

Halls Gap is likely to continue to have a high level of seasonal variation in its population. While the populations of Stawell and St Arnaud are expected to stabilise at just below their current levels by 2010, they will continue to provide essential commercial and specialist services to their hinterland smaller towns. Ararat is a centre with a thriving economy with a growing population at the centre of grain, cropping and horticulture industries.

Dynamic city driving new opportunities

The economic outlook for the Grampians region splits into two zones, similar to the region’s population outlook. The economy of Ballarat and surrounding locations (the CH21 region) is likely to continue to grow roughly in line with the state average, but the western parts of the region (with only half the population) are expected to grow at a slower pace.

With the majority of the CH21 region centred on either emerging dormitory suburbs or a key regional centre, the employment make up of the region is far more ‘metropolitan’ in flavour than the regional average, with the labour market relatively highly represented in industries such as manufacturing, IT services, real estate and professional services. If regional centres such as Ballarat can continue to integrate with the broader Melbourne employment market while maintaining their regional character, the CH21 region will continue to attract people from metropolitan Melbourne seeking more relaxed country lifestyles with access to good jobs in the region and the metropolitan area.

In the region’s west, the primary production sectors of agriculture and mining predominate. With its large dry land farming base, this part of the region is highly exposed to changing weather and climate patterns. New opportunities may emerge in renewable energy (especially large scale solar generation), mineral sands and heritage, nature-based and Indigenous tourism, especially in and around Ballarat and in the Grampians National Park.

The Grampians region as a whole is likely to hold its own in the longer run, with the dynamism of Ballarat and southern CH21 offsetting the challenges created by an ageing regional population. The growing prosperity of CH21 will also broaden the overall employment base of the region, due to an expanding population and the broader skills base that new residents are likely to bring.

Major government investment and service improvements

The Victorian Government continues to invest heavily in upgrading road, rail and freight infrastructure in the CH21 region to capture the benefits of proximity to Melbourne. Major funding has been made available fro the State Government for the reconnection of the central Victorian town of Maryborough to the regional rail network, with services linking with Ballarat and Melbourne commencing later in 2010.Work has commenced on the Regional Rail Link, a $4.3 billion project to construct up to 50 kilometres of new V/Line track between Werribee and Southern Cross Stations. This new link will speed-up services to Ballarat. Other projects include the upgrading of the Wimmera intermodal terminal at Dooen, the Western Highway duplication between Ballarat and Stawell, planning for a Horsham bypass and the Nhill trailer exchange.

The Commonwealth Government’s economic stimulus package is enabling number of Victorian Transport Plan projects to be brought forward, providing for early commencement of four major road projects, including the Anthony’s Cutting Realignment on the Western Highway.

Upgrades of Stawell and Hamilton airports are being undertaken through the RDV's Infrastructure Development Fund.

Education Regeneration Projects are under way in Ballarat, Horsham, Warracknabeal, Rainbow, Dimboola, Hopetoun and Beaufort, Ouyen. These projects will deliver a better model of education to communities and provide an opportunity to develop partnerships with community groups, businesses and other levels of government to improve educational and life outcomes for children and young people.

The Government committed $55 million in the 2010-11 budget to redevelop the Ballarat Regional Integrated Cancer Centre to enable more than 800 additional patients to receive chemotherapy and /or radiotherapy locally.

Ecosystems

Unique ecosystems (such as the Little and Big Desert regions and the northern Grampians) are likely to be at increased risk from fire and have limited margins to adapt to major environmental changes. In the east, towns and communities around Ballarat and along the Melbourne to Ballarat corridor are also exposed to the increased risk of bushfires, making fire prevention and land use planning critical to the area’s future.

The Securing our Natural Future White Paper identifies three flagship assets requiring special management and protection: Greater Grampians (including the Grampians National Park and Mount Arapiles), the Goldfields and part of the Western Volcanic Plains in Golden Plains Shire.

Water security, supply and connections

The south eastern part of the region, from Ballarat to Moorabool and across Hepburn Shire, is subject to the Central Region Water Strategy. This strategy commits the Victorian Government to undertaking a range of local recycling projects, including the use of recycled water for industry in Ballarat.

Ballarat has been connected to the Goulburn system, providing sufficient water to secure the city’s supply into the future. Other actions under way in Ballarat include water conservation and efficiency for homes and businesses, an interconnection to the Cosgrave Reservoir in Creswick to allow access to a previously unused water entitlement, and greater use of recycled water to supply Lake Wendouree and industry. To secure supplies during drought years, Central Highlands Water has been granted access to groundwater from the Cardigan aquifer. Ballarat will also continue to share water in the Lal Lal Reservoir with Geelong.

The draft Western Region Water Strategy will be released in 2010. The water outlook in the west is influenced by the likelihood that climate change will cause the region to be drier and warmer than over the past century. Water inflows over the last 13 years have been as low as 90 per cent less than the long term average. While there is uncertainty about the rainfall effects of climate change, groundwater resources in the region (which comprise up to 52 per cent of water used) will still need to be managed particularly carefully in future.

The Wimmera-Mallee and Hamilton-Grampians pipelines now offer a reliable source of high quality water to farms, towns and businesses, and will exert considerable influence over water planning in the foreseeable future. Interconnection and expansion of the reticulated water grid is facilitating the movement of water to areas where it is needed most, enhancing water security and opening up new possibilities for water trading to achieve the highest value use of water.

Following are the Grampians Regional plans as presented to the Victorian Government for endorsement: