Hume's Outlook
Hume extends from the outer fringes of Melbourne in the south to the Murray River in the north and the Victorian Alps in the north east. The region includes major wine growing and horticulture areas, the high country and ski resorts, peri-urban communities, Lake Eildon, the Puckapunyal Army Base and the centres of Wodonga and Shepparton.
Strong growth in centres
The Hume region is made up of the Goulburn and the Ovens-Murray ABS statistical districts.
As with other regions, a large part of Hume’s population growth is projected to come from people moving from Melbourne in search of a change of lifestyle, with areas along the Murray River particularly popular for retirees. As Victoria’s population ages, this movement from Melbourne is projected to increase from 1,700 per year to 3,000 per year.
Wodonga is likely to continue its strong growth, as will towns adjacent to Melbourne, such as Seymour, Wallan and Kilmore. The future of Wodonga is important to the growth and continuing prosperity of surrounding towns, including Beechworth and Yackandandah, which are visitors centres, and Kiewa and Tallangatta, which service agricultural and pastoral economies.
Shepparton and Echuca are expected to experience steady growth, influenced by their proximity to relatively intensively settled hinterlands with small towns such as Tatura, Kyabram and Nathalia, which themselves provide important services to their farming communities and local residents. Similarly, Benalla is expected to continue to grow as a thriving retail and business services centre for a grazing and agricultural sub-region. Numurkah, providing similar services is expected to grow as the benefits of improved agriculture and horticulture infrastructure and services accrue.
Because of its attractive location and excellent local infrastructure, Yarrawonga is projected to continue to grow at above the regional Victoria average (1 per cent) to 2026. It also provides sub-regional business and agricultural services, as do the towns of Cobram and Rutherglen.
Industry and jobs base
Hume is extremely varied in its industry and employment make-up, with a strong concentration of agriculture in the west and the alpine, wine and gourmet food areas in the region’s east making tourism a strong contributor to regional employment (although this is highly seasonal). Climate change may pose longer term threats to ski-field employment.
The Goulburn area is one of Victoria’s largest primary producers, directly producing over $1.6 billion from primary production and the manufacture of food and beverages. These sectors depend upon water supply for irrigation and processing and may also be affected by climate change. However, investment in the Northern Victoria Irrigation Renewal Project will create water savings and efficiencies, and improve the potential for new business opportunities in horticulture, dairy and associated food industries.
Manufacturing is very strong in the region, especially around Wodonga and Wangaratta, with manufacturing accounting for a larger proportion of employment in Hume than in Melbourne.
Because the Hume region is not hitched to a single economic sector and is not as diversified as the best performing regions of the state, growth in the region is likely to be moderate in comparison with the rest of regional Victoria.
Major government investment and service improvements
The Hume region contains a number of major transport corridors that have been or are being upgraded.
The Commonwealth Government’s economic stimulus package includes a significant investment in Victorian transport infrastructure, which will complement the Victorian Transport Plan and allow a number of planned projects to be brought forward, including the Goulburn Valley Highway – Nagambie Bypass.
The North East Rail Revitalisation Project, which includes a new train station and rail bypass at Wodonga, will be completed within the next two years. The Goulburn Valley Freight Logistics Centre at Shepparton is also under development.
Shepparton Bypass and Strathmerton deviation alignments have been determined and can be upgraded subject to Commonwealth funding.
Education Regeneration Projects are occurring in Shepparton, Echuca, Benalla, Seymour, Wodonga, Wangaratta and Yarrawonga. These projects will deliver an improved model of education to communities and provide the opportunity to develop partnerships with community groups, businesses and other levels of government to improve educational and life outcomes for children and young people.
The Government has also committed to a major redevelopment of Alexandra Hospital.
Bushfire recovery and prevention continues following the devastating February 2009 fires, including investment to replace community assets destroyed in the fires.
Regional income and climate change
Hume has a relatively high exposure to the impacts of climate change, with around 20 per cent of income in the Goulburn region coming from sectors that are highly sensitive to these impacts.
Shorter, drier winters mean that the area covered by snow for 60 days each year will shrink, possibly by as much as 90 per cent by 2050 – with major implications for businesses, communities and jobs that are dependent upon winter tourism. Already endangered alpine plant and animal species will be at even greater risk. The Victorian Alps are designated by the Securing our Natural Future White Paper as a flagship area and will receive additional investment, support and attention to ensure that threatened species, native vegetation and vital ecosystem services are protected and that associated strategies are implemented for the benefit of the public, as well as private landowners and business operators.
Hume also includes the eastern end of the Mega Murray flagship area (including sections of the Goulburn, Ovens, King and Kiewa Rivers).and a new biolink that extends from the Murray River to the Alps.
Large parts of the region are also highly vulnerable to increased fire risk including national parks and forestry plantations.
Water security, supply and connections
Projected decreases in run-off in the Goulburn and Broken Catchments are expected to affect water supply, irrigated agriculture and the survival of wetlands and aquatic ecosystems. Already high salinity levels in some areas may increase.
Hume is covered by policies and strategies in the Northern Region Sustainable Water Strategy, which aims to ensure that the region’s water supply is secure into the future. The strategy recognises that inflow reductions of between 50 and 70 per cent could occur across the region, with little prospect of returning to the water availability of the past. The strategy aims to manage this situation to ensure that the region’s irrigation system can run every year; provide carryover and trade facilities to enable licence holders to manage their own risks; clarify entitlements to water; and improve the health of rivers and wetlands.
The Northern Victoria Irrigation Renewal Project investment of up to $2 billion is designed to secure water for Victoria’s food bowl. A feature of Stage 1 is automating the ‘backbone’ channels in the Goulburn Murray Irrigation District, which stretches from Yarrawonga to Swan Hill, to measure water flow more accurately and assist water savings. Irrigation renewal projects will create a world class irrigation district in the region, securing its future as a centre of food production and exports.
Stage 1 of the project is funded by the Victorian Government, Melbourne Water and Goulburn-Murray Water. Subject to due diligence, the Commonwealth Government has agreed in principle to fund Stage 2. Eighty per cent of water savings from the project will stay in northern Victoria to be shared by irrigators and to be available for local rivers and wetlands; 20 per cent of savings will go to Melbourne via the Sugarloaf Pipeline.
The development of the Commonwealth’s Murray-Darling Basin Plan by June 2011, which will set new ‘sustainable diversion limits’ on extraction from the Basin’s surface water and groundwater systems, will also impact on water management within the region when implemented in Victoria in 2019. A Draft Plan is expected to be released in mid-2010, which will give the community an opportunity to consider and comment on how the proposed new limits could impact on the amount and reliability of water available for consumptive use in the region.
Following are the Hume Regional plans as presented to the Victorian Government for endorsement: