Loddon Mallee's Outlook
The Loddon-Mallee region curves from the centre of the state – from just north of Sunbury near Melbourne – to Bendigo and along the Murray River to Mildura in the far north west. While the consolidation and restructuring occurring in agriculture may have a negative impact on some places, Loddon-Mallee overall has a very positive outlook and strong prospects for future investment, business and employment growth.
Strong growth cities and centres
Loddon-Mallee’s population is projected to grow by around 60,000 between 2006 and 2026. Much of this growth will occur in and around Bendigo, which has a projected population growth rate of 1.48 per cent and will be home to an additional 30,000 people by 2026. The number of people relocating from Melbourne to the southern part of the region is expected to increase from around 1,500 to 2,600.
Aside from Bendigo, towns with strong projected growth rates include Castlemaine and the Macedon Ranges towns of Gisborne, Kyneton, Romsey and Woodend (where growth is being driven by proximity and good access to Melbourne, and amenity factors). Each of these locations serves as a service provider for a series of smaller settlements that rely on them for education, health, retail and business services, as well as their functions as transport nodes.
In the north of the region, much of the population growth is expected to occur in and around Mildura, which will grow by around 4,500 people by 2026. This growth will be driven by Mildura’s continuing development as a major regional services and retail centre that provides jobs, education and business opportunities. The transport and agricultural centre of Ouyen will grow modestly, while continuing to provide important health, education and business services to a large, sparsely-populated surrounding area.
While Swan Hill is projected to grow at a modest rate, it will also continue to develop as a regional service centre providing major business, health, retailing and education services for the towns of Manangatang and Sea Lake, although the latter town has its own role as a local service centre for a rich broad-hectare farming area.
While the population of Kerang is projected to decrease slightly, it will retain more than 10,00 people in 2026 and continue to provide business, municipal, and health and education services to residents and its hinterland. Cohuna is expected to continue to service an expanded summer population, as well as its local population.
While the population in the north west is expected to age significantly over the next three decades (at a higher rate than the rest of regional Victoria), the trend in the southern part of the region is lower than the statewide average – due to relatively high numbers of young people staying in, or moving to, Bendigo.
Combined outlook
The economic outlook for the region splits into three zones, similar to the region’s population growth outlook. The economy of Bendigo and surrounding areas is likely to continue to grow roughly in line with the state average, driven by growth in the construction, services and retail sectors. In the north, where population growth will be lower, new industry development and economic growth will be slower. Population growth will be the principal driver of economic development in the construction and services sectors in the Melbourne hinterland towns of Gisborne, Kyneton, Romsey and Riddells Creek.
In the north, dryland farming continues to be a major economic driver for the region, especially in Buloke Shire, with the ability of primary producers to adapt to change and drive efficiencies being the key to future competitiveness. New business and employment opportunities are expected to emerge in Mildura and Swan Hill and their hinterland towns.
The continuing health of viticulture and wine making is endangered by volatility in global markets and oversupply in some segments of local markets. In some horticulture sectors, reduced water inflows in upper catchments are likely to produce continuing uncertainty. These sectors are expected to consolidate in existing locations and maintain modest growth in the medium-long term.
In the southern part of the region, while the economy remains influenced by the mining industry, manufacturing is also important. Employment is growing in the services sectors, particularly in health and education, and related industries, such as IT and professional and business services, are also strong.
The longer term outlook is particularly strong in the suburban areas of Bendigo. Bendigo is now large enough to have a central area with a relatively stable population and an expanding suburban fringe similar to state capitals. The Bendigo area is also benefiting from improved transport links with Melbourne.
More broadly across the region, new opportunities are likely to emerge in renewable energy (particularly large scale solar), mineral sands and nature-based and Indigenous tourism.
Major government investment and service improvements
The Government continues to upgrade road, rail and communications connections to allow businesses along the Calder corridor to trade with businesses in Melbourne, enable easy commuting between Melbourne and Bendigo, and give people along the corridor access to jobs, education and services. Work has commenced on the Regional Rail Link, a $4.3 billion project to construct up to 50 kilometres of new V/Line track between Werribee and Southern Cross Station. This new link will improve the frequency and reliability of services to Bendigo and contribute to continuing growth, and access to lifestyle choices, in the region.
Mildura airport has been upgraded and Bendigo airport is to be upgraded, reflecting the bright future for connectivity to both centres,
Growth in the mineral sands mining industries will contribute to growth in freight traffic throughout the region, particularly by semi trailers and b-doubles. This will generate demand for road maintenance and improvements in road and rail links to the ports of Geelong and Portland and to processing plants located at various locations in and around the region.
Education Regeneration projects are under way in Bendigo, Ouyen, Robinvale, Merbein, Kyabram, Boort and Kyneton. These projects will deliver a better model of education to communities and also provide the opportunity to develop partnerships with community organisations, business and other levels of government to improve educational and life outcomes for children and young people.
The Government committed $473 million in the 2010-11 budget for the redevelopment of Bendigo hospital, the largest regional hospital project ever undertaken in Victoria.
Climate change
Parts of the region, mainly in the Mallee, are more highly exposed to climate change than many parts of the State, influencing the way farm businesses operate. Adaptation and adjustment will continue to drive advances and efficiencies in dryland cropping, irrigated agriculture and viticulture.
Loddon-Mallee includes three flagship areas identified in the Securing our Natural Future White Paper as requiring special management and protection: the Mega Murray, the Mallee (including the Hattah Kulkyne and Murray-Sunset national parks) and Goldfields (which includes box-ironbark forest stands throughout the southern regions of the Goulburn, Ovens, King and Kiewa Rivers). A new biolink is recognised between these areas. This approach is projected to drive improvements the health of the Loddon and Goulburn Rivers.
Water security, supply and connections
Inflows to the region’s major rivers and reservoirs have reduced over the last decade by up to 80 per cent. These reductions compare to CSIRO high climate change projections by 2055. The Northern Region Sustainable Water Strategy aims to address this situation by stabilising water supply and demand in the region, affecting significant efficiencies in water usage, and supplementing the regional resource from other water districts.
The Northern Victoria Irrigation Renewal Project investment will help to secure Loddon-Mallee’s water future. A feature of Stage 1 is automating the ‘backbone’ channels in the Goulburn Murray Irrigation District, which stretches from Yarrawonga to Swan Hill, to measure water flow more accurately and assist water savings. Irrigation renewal projects will create a highly advanced irrigation district in the region, securing its future as a powerhouse of food production and exports.
Eighty per cent of water savings from the project will stay in northern Victoria to be shared by irrigators and to be available for local rivers and wetlands; 20 per cent of savings will go to Melbourne via the Sugarloaf Pipeline.
Major government investment, including a Commonwealth Government contribution in irrigation infrastructure through the Sunraysia Modernisation Project will also benefit irrigators, food producers and processors. This work will enhance the quality and reliability of water supply for the sub-region.
The Commonwealth Government’s Murray-Darling Basin Plan will also affect water management within the region when implemented in Victoria in 2019.
Following are the Loddon Mallee Regional plans as presented to the Victorian Government for endorsement: